If we assume that American dividends grow in line with GDP, that suggests a realgrowthrate of perhaps 2.5%, and thus a likely total real return of around 4.5%.
The main reason for the bigger trade surplus was a sharp slowdown in the annual realgrowthrate in imports, from more than 30% in early 2004 to less than 15% last year.
In 2008, the economic growth slowed down in all three Baltic states (due to global financial crisis), with Lithuania's realgrowthrate falling to 3.0%, Latvia's -4.6% and Estonia's -3.6%.