Cone of Uncertainty

A projected three- and five-day path of Hurricane Irene, here downgraded to a tropical storm

In project management, the Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of uncertainty during a project. Uncertainty not only decreases over time passing, but it also diminishes its impact by risk management, specifically by decision-making. At the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty. As more research and development is done, more information is learned about the project, and the uncertainty then tends to decrease, reaching 0% when all residual risk has been terminated or transferred. This usually happens by the end of the project i.e. by transferring the responsibilities to a separate maintenance group.

单词	Cone of Uncertainty
释义	Cone of Uncertainty 英语百科 Cone of Uncertainty In project management, the Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of uncertainty during a project. Uncertainty not only decreases over time passing, but it also diminishes its impact by risk management, specifically by decision-making. At the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty. As more research and development is done, more information is learned about the project, and the uncertainty then tends to decrease, reaching 0% when all residual risk has been terminated or transferred. This usually happens by the end of the project i.e. by transferring the responsibilities to a separate maintenance group.
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