the euro

Late Tuesday the euro should turn higher and rally for a minimum of a week and possibly longer.

Third, the rules of the euro area turned out to be about as solid as a slice of brie left out in the midday sun.

Cameron's veto saves their blushes. But it does not save the euro and for that there is likely to be payback for the British.

Jitters about whether the emergency loan package would be enough to stem the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis also hammered Spanish stocks.

The euro, which had rallied strongly from mid-January through the end of April has lost more than 5% this month against the dollar.

But if Greece's partners bail it out, defying the euro's founding treaty, the currency will suffer. Either way, the euro is in trouble.

The trouble is, the euro area has no mechanism to help a member that cannot fund itself in capital markets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Stark stood for a "culture of stability" in the euro zone to which her government strongly adhered.

The British minister George Osborne said the discussions in Paris had brought the euro zone reforms a step closer.

Over longer time horizons, inflation expectations in the euro area seem to be well anchored at levels below but close to 2%.

Adopting the euro should open Poland up to more of that sort of trade and the stable, long-term capital investment that goes with it.

The fact is, though, that they are going to have to continue to do that if the euro is going to continue to exist in its current form.

But some US policymakers privately complain that European backing is patchy and tends to go up and down with the euro.

In his speech, Mr Regling hinted that this too might have something to do with inappropriate policies caused by the euro.

JUST a few weeks ago the main question about the euro-area economy was whether it would avoid recession.

"I don't think we've seen the bottom for the euro this year but this latest down leg is running out of steam, " he said.

Should Spain try to break out of this trap by leaving the euro, and re-establishing its own currency?

Life is still far from easy in the peripheral states of the United States of Europe (as the euro zone is now known).

The assumption is still that the euro zone will somehow muddle through, at least for a while.

It is often said that in the face of the euro crisis the EU must either integrate or disintegrate.

For months, he said, he has wagered the Swiss franc would eventually fall, even as the currency routinely hit record highs against the euro.

The most widely used form of English as a second language in Europe is known as the Euro-English.

But the euro was an incomplete currency: it had a central bank but no treasury.

Mrs Merkel departed for Bavaria hoping that the summiteers had done enough to impress the markets and put the euro on a more stable footing.

The dollar is only slightly weaker against the euro when compared to a year ago, just as the financial crisis hit full stride.

While bond yields are sending off worrying signals about Ireland and Portugal, the euro seems to be focused on other things.

If Spain and Italy were to get into a vicious cycle like Greece, Mr Tilford warns, "the future of the euro would be very much in doubt" .

All this uncertainty is adding up to an environment where the euro is expected to face continued downward pressure.

You need him for the qualification games for Euros and you need him in Euro to win the Euro 2008. He is a fantastic football player.

It would be wrong to conclude that, in trying to get ahead of the crisis, the euro zone's policymakers have already gone too far.

By removing the weakest members of the euro-zone from the public markets one at a time, they expose the next-weakest to increased pressure.

Asian investors are looking at it (the euro zone crisis) and saying that they want to be out of euro assets, and even Bunds.

But only a year ago Italy's sluggish economy and fiscal problems inspired talk about a break up of the euro.

The euro continued to be buffeted by uncertainty about a resolution to the Greek debt crisis.

Nevertheless, even if the euro system was not at the heart of the crisis, it needs to be able to withstand two standard deviation shocks.

This is not just a question of non - participation in the euro, the Schengen passport - free zone or EU justice and home- affairs policies.

The European Union, another traditional global leader, will need at least another year or two to sort out the euro mess.

A YEAR ago, when the financial crisis was in its infancy, the euro area enjoyed a brief moment in the sun.

The dollar, which like the yen has recently been gaining against rival currencies, climbed against the euro and the British pound.

It is not all to do with America: the euro zone is a mess and manufacturing everywhere seems to be slowing.

HRN: That's a good point. Inflation is a concern in Europe and the Euro seems to be in trouble. Can the Euro survive?

All that suggests the euro will retain its status as a funding currency for carry trades, reducing any chance of a bounce.

The company has been hurt by the weakness of the euro against the yen and said it would raise prices to compensate.

But it now looks as if, barring upsets, Estonia by the middle of next year will have met all the criteria for joining the euro.

Public opinion does not like the euro, but does not want to hear of an alternative to it.

Bill Cash, the veteran Eurosceptic MP, said: "The entire European Union project is unravelling as the euro itself unravels. "

And yet mainstream opinion in Warsaw is in no doubt that the nation's destiny is tied to the euro, and particularly to Germany.

Wilkinson said the euro's failure to push up to $1. 4350 mean it may be vulnerable to a pullback on Friday.

HSBC said the euro's next upside target is $1. 4720, a breach of which should propel the unit to its highest in nearly a year.

Competitive pressure could then force France to leave the euro as well, bringing the monetary union to an end.

But the claim that the country was threatening to leave the euro seems to have been wrong, though it caused yet another market convulsion.

With the euro in peril and the US on the brink of bankruptcy, the west seems to have enough to worry about without fretting about cricket.

The euro is in a steady uptrend with no change in outlook for the U. S. economy. The U. S. data is only a little better.

Others said the next target was at $1. 2780, the 50 percent retracement of the euro's fall from mid-April to the June low.

Be prepared to pay a pretty penny if you take a trip to Europe. The dollar fell to another record low against the euro.

He said he also will attend the country-review sessions on China, as he already does with those on the U. S. and the euro zone.

It was one thing to try to hold the euro together from a position of relative strength in the core.

The euro-wide budget deficit also compares favourably with that of other big advanced countries.

Once upon a time , the euro was supposed to help integrate Europe's nations into one seamless, fully- integrated economy .

Real and nominal stochastic convergence : are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone ? ; Ali M. Kutan and Taner M.

Some analysts said the euro's 5. 7 percent drop against the dollar since the start of the year may be overdone.

Years of boom, buoyed by cheap foreign-currency loans and a currency pegged to the euro, have turned to a spectacular bust.

As it stands right now the euro is falling for a reason and neither of those variables look good at the moment.

sterling is beginning to lose a bit of its competitive edge against the euro as Europe's troubles pile up.

The euro, which had been falling steadily against the dollar, perked up a bit.

German voters were told repeatedly that the euro would be a stable currency and that they would not have to bail out southern Europe.

None of it right now adds up to a pretty picture for the euro, which is already down more than 6% this year against the dollar.

The only possible alternative, the euro, is structurally flawed and is in what may turn out to be an existential crisis.

"The euro debt crisis and the global financial crisis have increased risk aversion among the investors, " he said.

Conversely, if peripheral Europe had not been tethered to the euro, its currencies would have fallen over the same period.

A year ago it was said that the euro zone could take care of two or three small countries but that Spain was too big to fail.

In another, that's the worry for the stock market, because much like the Euro Zone, the global economy is all interconnected too.

European stockmarkets have slumped and the euro itself fell to its lowest level in a year against the dollar.

The logic was that if you were preparing for financial apocalypse, you had better not rely on the euro area surviving intact.

But he said he was happy to wait, predicting that the dollar would fall further to $1. 45 to the euro by the end of the year.

First would be a renewed assault on the eurozone. That would force money out of the euro and into the dollar.

He said the fates of Italy and Spain are intertwined, and integral to the euro's near-term fortunes.

On the political side, the long-term fix to the euro's malaise is said to be a fiscal union, a true political federation.

EVEN by the euro zone's undemanding standards, a summit deal that survived less than a week is lamentable.

The Republic can now stay with the euro if it wishes despite my personal view that it would be better off going back to sterling.

Except in a default, they avoid any fiscal transfer of the kind that would be anathema to the euro zone.

It is hard to imagine Jacques Delors, one of his most energetic predecessors, lying so low with the euro in such a state.

The politicians who planned the euro generally did not think about future current account imbalances or other economic problems.

As the euro's troubles go on, however, the signs are that the German electorate is becoming steadily less eager to go along with it.

I feel sorry for the Europeans, but let's face it: a year ago the euro was at $1. 50, now just $1. 40.

"We're now fairly bullish on the euro. It's actually one of our largest overweight positions, " he said.

The euro remained around a two-month high against the US dollar, while Europe's bond and equity markets did not budge on the news.

We'll continue to watch the EURO, as all the other currencies seem to be following its lead at the moment.

The euro has lost about 12 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

He said he wishes now that he had bought the currency versus the euro, too.

He said he wishes now that he had bought the currency versus the euro, too.

The euro area, he said, was currently its epicentre, and the consequences could be much worse than anything seen so far.

But, he said, creating a 'stability fund for the euro'-the larger part of the package-had to be 'a matter for the euro-group countries. '

Then, he said, "the euro will become more appealing as a reserve currency" .

Individual countries within the euro zone might be in peril, but not the common currency itself, he said.

Since the euro crisis is currently exerting an overwhelming influence on the global economy I shall devote the rest of my talk to it.

Of course, this is purely hypothetical because, if Germany were to leave the euro, the political consequences would be unthinkable.

With black eyes and a few teeth missing, the euro clawed its way back over the $1. 20 barrier Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately, in the case of Greece and Portugal at least, even this will not guarantee continued membership of the euro.

It is not clear that voters will thank him for his trouble, though they may appreciate his energetic efforts to solve the euro-zone crisis.

It would have to be a multistep process, just like the introduction of the euro itself during the 1990s.

The scheme is open to EU countries that do not use the euro: Poland and Sweden say they will sign up to it; Britain says it will not.

Terrified by the consequences of the euro's failure, they have urged fiscal union on the eurozone as a means of shoring up the currency.

However, the euro's move so far does not seem to be out of line with fundamentals or long-term values.

But there has never been anything like the current crisis over the euro.

He said he was very concerned about a renewed intensification of the euro zone's debt crisis.

If it fails to do so, Greece may be forced to bid farewell to its membership of the euro zone, whether it wants to or not.

The euro makes it easy to compare prices across 16 countries, and the single market allows goods to move freely within the European Union.

Contrary to what is often asserted, Greece would not collapse if it quit the euro.

Just as in 2001, however, the outlook for the euro area seems to be deteriorating a lot faster than the optimists had expected.

Consumer confidence in the euro zone tumbled to its lowest level in two years, the Brussels-based European Commission said Thursday.

Over the long term, Mr Rutte said, the eurozone should force countries to leave the euro if they did not abide by the commissioner's ruling.

If the euro were to disappear altogether, the question of how to handle euro-denominated contracts would be a legal morass.

One of the euro's big attractions was that it offered many countries a shortcut to a credible monetary set-up.

The authorities were confident, however, that if and when the euro ran into a crisis they would be able to overcome it.

Merkel said the solution to the current crisis was in closer economic cooperation in Europe and especially in the euro zone.

The point of the euro, for the French and others, was to make the system European, not German.

It is still in one piece. As they relax this Christmas, the architects and guardians of the euro can at least make that claim.

Although there was no fixed theme for this year's meeting, the strength of the euro zone was an important issue.

The optimistic outlook is that this correction would take the form of a catching up by the euro area in productivity growth.

Over the medium-term, Englander believes the euro zone will be able to resolve its issues, but he says the next month may be a "bit rough. "

Fifth, it is often said Ms Merkel fails to realise that saving the euro is profoundly in Germany's own interests.

I recall that in the early years of the euro zone there was a general notion in the markets that the Greeks were behaving like the Germans.

'We are prepared to work with our counterparts in the euro area to see in what way we can . . . normalize market conditions, ' he said.

Investors are also watching to see if the Fed discusses the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone and its impact on the U. S. economy.

The only thing likely to win the euro friends would be a coherent response to the crisis. But that looks a way off yet.

Without it, dysfunctional bond markets would not be able to transmit the central bank's interest-rate stance to the euro zone's economy.

It is a cruel irony that the euro could be felled by an Italian trying too hard to be a German.

That said, I reserve the right to resubmit my examination paper if Europe's leaders are foolish enough to let the euro zone sink.

Although she said that "political union" was necessary to save the euro, she also ruled out the use of Eurobonds.

That was a mistake that at least some of us have been pointing out since the very birth of the euro.

The euro zone's crisis has tested the efficacy of these European rules and led Germans to ask why they should pay when others break them.

Mrs Merkel speaks often of the need to save the euro, but she acts as if there were no imminent danger.

One surprising result of the crisis has been a softening of opposition to the idea of adopting Europe's single currency, the euro.

Logically, therefore, if those three options are not possible, the only path left is to leave the euro zone.

THE decline of the euro is often treated as a matter for exporters alone.

To leave any sort of legacy, he needs to build a credible system of economic governance for the euro.

Volvo is trying to reduce currency-exchange risk around the world, especially the euro-U.

His reward was that the euro zone will have two summits a year and its own secretariat.

It has suddenly become respectable to ask the question: what would happen if the euro broke up?

Some analysts have predicted the crises in the Euro Zone, however, could force the union to break up in the coming decade.

'There's a fundamental question of whether the euro will exist in its current form, ' Mr. Cookson says.

Against the Japanese yen, the euro fell to a four-year low and is now only three-quarters of its value in July.

The euro was also buoyed by data showing German consumer sentiment at its highest level in over a year.

I admit to having thought it possible that the euro itself might have prevented these historical differentials from reasserting themselves.

The question of what happens to euro-denominated contracts if the euro dissolves is a thorny one.

The Swiss franc, the only European franc not to have been replaced by the Euro, is used in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Of course, one might argue that this represents uncertainty over the dollar as much as the euro.

Britain, it is said, may have looked isolated after some two dozen countries signed up to the latest half-baked wheeze to save the euro.

On Friday, Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the eurogroup of finance ministers, said the euro was too strong against the US currency.

At the start of this year a surging recovery, led by Germany, was one reason to think that the euro zone could withstand the debt crisis.

First the euro, now Schengen. Europe's grandest integration projects seem to be suffering.

Now, with Italy falling off a cliff, it's hard to see how the euro can survive at all.

The euro is at risk and Europe may be facing its greatest challenge since the founding of the European Union, Merkel said.

On a chilly October evening in her austere chancellery, Angela Merkel placed a confidential call to Rome to help save the euro.

The much-forecast break-up of the euro seems to be having much this effect on the currency markets.

In the United States, the euro debt crisis has worked like this: The euro's pain has been the U. S. dollar's gain.

Rossi says the fate of Greece and its place in the euro zone is in Greek hands, but its grip is weak.

A year ago they tore up the rule book to bail out Greece and to ward off market attacks on other fiscal reprobates in the euro area.

The euro zone risks getting caught up in this process with an overvalued exchange rate at the wrong time.

A Spanish default would destroy the credibility of the euro, and quite possibly the currency itself, at least in its current form.

Its finance chief, Bodo Uebber, said the weakness of the dollar and pound against the euro also posed bad news.

In short, the euro zone would be reckless to flirt with collapse when an affordable rescue is possible.

Yet business and consumer confidence seem to be picking up across most of the euro area.

In particular, a dollar rally against the euro could end the rally in commodities, hurting profits at oil and mining companies, he said.

Even if the euro-zone crisis were to be solved tomorrow, the region's GDP would probably shrink over the coming months.

Even so, it is wrong to conclude that, in trying to get ahead of the crisis, the euro zone's policymakers have gone too far.

Not since the euro was created has there been such a big shortfall and there appear to be several factors at work.

But what Greece has decided and has implemented is the best signal to date that the euro as a means of structural transformation is working.

As any German would surely also remember, such devaluations meant that there was no German trade surplus before the euro.

The crisis is taken as evidence that the euro area is so far from being an optimal currency area that it is doomed.

Some parts of the private sector are also beginning to express concern about the euro's rise.

Their headache comes from trying to save the euro without enraging their voters.

Now he would urge the league's boss, Umberto Bossi, to abide by proposals to have a uniform retirement age of 67 across the euro zone.

The German figures, the best since reunification almost two decades ago, meant that the euro-area economy had a good quarter, too.

The euro, then, would proceed. And for a while, everything seemed to go well.

They stress the lack of experience in high office of the would-be Socialist candidates, at a time when the euro-zone crisis is deepening.

"Given this, the near-term dangers of a disorderly default and a Greek exit from the euro appear to have diminished. "

The euro has no "inherent problems, " except for the incompetence of its managers.

Yet that raises a further question: have leaders now done enough to put the euro zone on a sound footing?

Private banking sources said the new bonds could be guaranteed by the euro zone's rescue fund (EFSF) or the European Investment Bank.

Of course my concept of a no-default workout assumes that Greece can resume growth while remaining tethered to the euro.

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France said the two-day summit was the EU's last chance to save the euro.

And he has blamed the bank both for failing to cut interest rates and for negligently letting the euro appreciate.

I don't believe the euro zone can survive in its current form, and I think Europe is in for a deep recession, not a short shallow one.

They said it was a second-best solution that failed to stabilise the euro and restore the trust of the financial markets.

But Europe needs the euro, he said, adding: 'The difficulties that we have can be overcome. '

Ultimately, however, the question of the euro and the European financial system comes to rest with France.

Yet Mrs Merkel needs to be mindful of something else as well: that the current rescue plan for the euro is just not working.

Investors reacted by retreating from riskier assets, punishing currencies like the euro and the British pound.

The performance of the euro may be poor, but the impact on the global market is unlikely to last long, at least not as serious as before.

The euro area, for instance, would be far better off with a clear set of rules governing sovereign crises within its borders.

Why won't Ms Merkel live up to her promise to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro?

That would make Poland a strong candidate to join the euro (if the single currency is still going).

Some still argue that the only way to stabilise the euro in the long term, is to move towards a "fiscal federalism" modelled on the US.

The euro's troubles have been a proxy for a deeper crisis of integration.

Yet if the euro zone needs more fiscal federalism to survive, politics seems to preclude a Maastricht-style leap towards integration.

"The euro is too strong today, " he said. "I don't think the dollar is in line with underlying fundamentals. "

But it is a fact that sterling did not enter the euro because we foresaw flaws in its structure.

But only one thing is certain: these three problems must be resolved if the euro is to be a viable currency.

On Jan. 1, Estonia became the 17th country to adopt the euro, but it might be a while before it has company.

Both the central bankers and the Germans hate this idea, but it's the only plausible way the euro might be saved.

The chances are high of a Spanish asset price slide and banking crisis, with stagnation (at best) or depression, if it sticks in the euro.

As a result, the euro area is likely to make a bigger contribution to global growth over the next few years than it has of late.

The alternative is to let the euro-zone break apart and trade suffer across the Continent.

It was residual German scepticism that caused stiff tests to be set up for countries that wish to join the euro.

The UK, which of course did not adopt the euro, has benefited from a sharp sustained depreciation of the pound.

In her opinion the stability of the Euro would not be affected by problems in Greece.

What would have happened during the financial crisis if the euro had not existed?

Britain was right to shun the euro, Mr Osborne said, but "I told you so" does not "amount to an economic policy" .

If you get some much bigger kind of . . . change around the euro, then we are into a different situation altogether.

Another lure was that pension-fund clients preferred investments in the currency their liabilities were denominated in, the euro.

And like all financial markets, foreign exchange trading feeds on itself: a belief that the euro will fall is enough to make it happen.

Labour accuse him of using the euro crisis as an excuse for poor growth but many voters seem to think it is a good one.

International investors began to target Ireland as a weak link in the euro zone, raising its borrowing costs to unsustainable levels.

I would not completely exclude the possibility that they might accept it if the alternative was a breakdown of the euro.

The euro zone must ensure that delinquent borrowers do not exploit these facilities to run up bills for everyone else to pay.

Currencies have been correlated to commodities, so when gold gave up its gains on Monday, so did the euro, he said.

For most of his term the euro has been a strong currency, at times reaching $1. 60.

"If the euro fails, Europe fails but we will not allow that, " she said in Frankfurt.

It would be a heavy irony if Greece, a member of the euro club, were temporarily reprieved by loans in dollars.

In the mid-1990s successive Italian governments, desperate not to be left out of the euro, pushed through some impressive reforms.

We have to continue working hard because in a short competition like the Euro it's the small stuff that determines matches.

But a collapse of the euro would bring with it unprecedented technical, economic and political costs (see article).

That investors have belatedly woken up to sovereign risk in the euro zone is to be welcomed.

Do not attempt to modify the currency quotation methods for currencies linked to the euro.

Greece, which adopted the euro in 2001, subsequently admitted that it had done so with made-up budgetary figures.

The summit's closing statement referred to "a new quality of economic-policy coordination in the euro area. "

the euro has adopted the single monetary policy , but each country acts of its own free will in terms of banking regulation.

The U. S. and the euro zone already have had to confront unsustainable trends in fiscal entitlements programs.

Otmar Issing, one of the fathers of the euro, correctly states the principle on which the single currency was founded.

How would less productive economies cope with competition in the euro area when devaluation was no longer an option?

Mr Marchionne said the weakness of the dollar against the euro compelled European companies to manufacture in the US.

But she also said the euro would have to climb above $1. 33 to signal a lasting turn in sentiment.

We are on the edge of a potential catastrophe for the euro and that's not going to be good when it happens.

At a time of international financial instability that is threatening the euro currency, and with the eyes of world markets on Italy, Mr.

Ms Lagarde's Norman roses may continue to be neglected this spring and summer, whether the euro crisis revives or not.

This shifting of risk from bondholders was a bad idea in Ireland and generalizing it across the euro zone will not improve it.

"The choices we make will be decisive for the Greek people, " he said, adding that the euro was vital for prosperity.

Greece would be better off if it abandons the euro, devalues its new currency, and defaults on its debt.

A decline of the euro cannot be a permanent solution to differences in productivity trends within the eurozone.

The country most likely to leave the euro zone is not Greece, Spain or Portugal -- but Germany.

In such an economically integrated area as the euro zone, leaving the currency union would not solve Greece's economic problems either.

But I do have a strong view that the dollar will appreciate over against the euro in over the next three years.

Second, it would be an instrument to rebuild trust among the members of the euro area.

Should debt markets close the door on Italy altogether, the euro would be in lethal danger.

Despite the troubles on its periphery, the public debt of the euro zone as a whole is not notably high by rich-country standards.

Ironically, the euro zone's difficulties in recent months have made it easier for the United States to go into debt.

For these reasons, and a few others, Mr. Brown played a long game to ensure that the pound was not subsumed by the euro.

It was the flaws in the construction of the euro that forced Mr Trichet's hand, not a lack of fortitude under political pressure.