subramanian

To be fair, Subramanian is more nuanced than to say that China's rise is guaranteed.

Reversing reforms and shifting back to such financial repression is not a sensible economic strategy for India, argues Mr Subramanian.

If prices are adjusted downwards to a more accurate level, Subramanian says, Chinese GDP rises significantly.

"All across Asia, countries have had to deal with the real problem of overheating, " Mr Subramanian says.

"Reserve currency status is not just about economic size and trade but about investors' faith in policy credibility, " Mr Subramanian says.

As Subramanian notes, China will have to develop financial markets that are deep, liquid, and open to foreigners.

Getting it would be a chore, notes Subramanian.

His speech is quoted in "Eclipse" , a new book by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Many economists will dispute Mr Subramanian's calculations (he rejects the standard measures of purchasing power parity).

Mr Subramanian combines each country's share of world GDP, trade and foreign investment into an index of economic "dominance" .

Three forces will dictate China's rise, Mr Subramanian argues: demography, convergence and "gravity" .

Arvind Subramanian, an Indian economist, says there has been "no serious questioning of the role of the market. "

An added bonus: The strategy does especially well when merger activity increases, Ms. Subramanian says.

'The handover of world dominance is complete, ' Mr. Subramanian, a former IMF researcher, writes.

Not according to Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

Mr Subramanian argues that China's economic might will overshadow America's sooner than people think.

Subramanian closes by saying that predictions of enduring US dominance are based on a "mechanical interpretation of history" .

That Subramanian contends shows Indian managers can better compete head-to-head with the world's top CEOs in the most demanding markets.

The rewards to China of opening up fully to foreign capital trump the risks, reckons Mr Subramanian.

Technology stocks, Subramanian added, are well represented in that list.

"GDP and size matters in crude superpower terms, " said Mr. Subramanian. "It shows what resources you can bring to the table. "

"A tectonic shift has occurred in the global economy, " Subramanian writes.

The global economy will remain unipolar, dominated by a "G1" , Mr Subramanian argues.

You might almost say that Mr Subramanian is a "China bear" .

If China's political regime implodes, "all bets will be off" , Mr Subramanian admits.

China's dominance will also have limits, as Mr Subramanian points out.

Mr Subramanian reckons the fund may need to have as much as $1 trillion on hand.

Buoyed by these two forces, China will account for over 23% of world GDP by 2030, measured at PPP, Mr Subramanian calculates.

Subramanian believes that IMF calculations overstate prices in China by focusing solely on urban areas.