output gap

It did, however produce a chart showing that the output gap tends to line up with swings in inflation, as one would expect.

Estimating how big the output gap is, and how much of a deflationary threat it still poses, is not easy.

Nevertheless, there was no evidence that this model was any better than other models using the output gap or nominal money growth.

Yet in 1931 orthodox economists were denying there was an output gap at the bottom of the greatest depression in history.

"The essential building blocks" of the forecast are estimates of the trend level and rate of growth of output and of the "output gap" .

You can see that the economy made up a lot of the output gap before the 1938 setback, but by no means all.

First, the central bank's estimate of the output gap in the industrial sector is now showing reduced strain on factory capacity.

if the output gap is negative, factories are sitting idle with not enough customers, and prices would be pushed down.

If monetary policy is relaxed in the US too soon in response to a rising output gap, and inflationary expectations pick up.

The authors take this as evidence that the output gap may have been only 2% in the first quarter, implying little or no threat of deflation.

Moreover, the OECD forecasts a significant output gap - and so persistent deflationary pressure - at least until 2005.

The OECD, the Paris-based organisation that tracks advanced economies, does not expect this "output gap" to close until 2015.

And the Obama plan is nowhere near big enough to fill this "output gap. "

Measuring the output gap (the shortfall of actual demand compared with potential GDP) is notoriously tricky.

Yet it seems premature to write off the threat as long as a large output gap persists.

This divergence in estimates highlights the biggest problem in relying on the output gap: it is a slippery thing to measure.

"Evidence suggests that core [non-energy] inflation only starts to rise again once the output gap has been closed. "

and the whole procedure depends on many hours of analysis of whether there is an "output gap" and how large it is.

So we need a fiscal stimulus big enough to close a 7% output gap.

Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, reckons America's output gap will reach 9% of GDP by next year.

The output gap was a positive 0. 82% in June, the first time in seven months it had dropped below 1%, according to the central bank.

However, after four quarters of consecutive above-potential-level of GDP growth we believe the output gap is closed.

This is the phenomenon of strong asset prices with a large output gap, says Nomura's Asian equity strategist.

The following chart shows the output gap and CPI inflation data since 2000 revealing a consistently positive relationship.

Since no big reduction of the output gap is likely until 2011, interest rates will remain very low into 2011 and probably beyond.

Output-gap deniers always see the microbe of inflation in the air.

A large and persistent output gap in the 1990s eventually tipped Japan into deflation in 2000; inflation expectations also turned negative.

It declared Japan's output gap, between what the economy can produce and what it is actually producing, at long last to be closed.

The fit and output gap varies but the underlying story is the same.

(para. 5) . . . does not expect this "output gap" to close until 2015.

In March, the output gap was a positive 3. 06%, according to the central bank's previous report.

The US has a large output gap that will weigh on inflation.

This policy setting is broadly consistent with the prevailing US output gap, estimated at about -1. 2% of GDP in 2003.

Given Okun's law, every excess point of unemployment above 5 means a 2% output gap.

Research in the output gap found that there is certain inertia in China's macroeconomic development.

At that point, the economy will be operating at 4% below its potential, the biggest such "output gap" since 1983.

Trouble is, it is almost impossible to measure an output gap with any accuracy.

If the output gap is positive, factories are running all out in response to high demand, which tends to push prices up;

The IMF estimates the output gap in advanced economies will hit -5. 1 percent in 2009. In Japan, the gap may be -8 percent.

Quantitative Analysis of the Output Gap of Papers of Humanities and Social Sciences in Research University

the uncertainty is an inherent feature of output gap estimates

A Compare Research on Estimation Methods of Potential Output and the Output Gap