OPEC

Thank you for being such a fine host for the OPEC summit.

To say there's some uncertainty over OPEC's intentions, let alone its capabilities, is something of an understatement.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, is so far the only OPEC member that has responded by saying it would pump more oil.

Since the Iran -Iraq war , the two countries have had a gentlemen's agreement to maintain similar quotas within Opec .

Saudi Arabia, the biggest power in OPEC, is a close U. S. ally and is loath to see the group used as a forum to take shots at the West.

That, indeed, is the main reason Opec decided this weekend against trying to force prices up by cutting back output.

Nevertheless, an Opec official said the meeting was likely to be held and that the preferred date among ministers was October 18-19.

OPEC works because Saudi Arabia is prepared to invest in, and carry the opportunity cost of, spare capacity .

OPEC appears to be sticking by its production cuts, overall supply is down and it feels like the global economy may be leveling off.

OPEC then began to add extra barrels in the fall of 2007, seeing that supplies were tight and prices were beginning to soar.

In public, Opec officials maintain there is no need to increase output and Saudi oil officials have remained silent on the matter.

Subsequent downward pressure on interest rates came from a fall in the demand for real money, just as in the case of the OPEC recession.

OPEC's delegates are not the only ones in a muddle. Bankers' predictions of next year's oil price range from less than $50 to over $100.

Its moderate forecast comes as Opec is likely to leave its production levels unchanged when it meets in Vienna on Thursday.

Months of big OPEC production cuts have been a primary factor for the sweeping recovery in crude prices.

OPEC has not officially increased output since a meeting last September and has no plans to meet formally until September 9.

Moreover, OPEC's members do not yet seem to be complying fully with their diminished quotas.

The other big non-OPEC exporters, Mexico and Norway, also seem unlikely to rein in exports at a time of dropping oil revenue.

Saudi Arabia had been warning that crude oil demand towards the end of the year could be stronger than Opec's official projection.

The Russian outreach to OPEC comes at a time of severe strain between Moscow and the West after Russia's invasion of Georgia last month.

He said Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most influential member, wants the price of oil per barrel to be between $22 to $28.

However, oil stocks rose as crude prices benefited from hopes that this week's Opec meeting would result in production cuts.

"Opec has nothing to fear. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, the contribution from biofuels would be very small, " Mr Mandil said.

Although Opec might be tempted to increase production, Currie says the oil price is more of a refinery problem than a production problem.

Economic imperialism is committed by OPEC daily, trying to steal money.

Market power will shift back to the Opec states, the only available and relatively low cost source of new oil to meet growing global demand.

"OPEC has for the moment been removed as a force for moderating prices on the upside, " said Barclays Capital.

That view is shared by OPEC, which has warned the global economic meltdown will depress oil consumption by at least one percent, this year.

The rumour about the terror attack at Nigeria's production establishments last week did not drive the OPEC's oil prices soaring.

Some Opec countries are worried such moves could jeopardise future demand just as they embark on expansion plans.

Crude is now at its lowest level in four and a half years despite Opec's recent decision to slash production by record levels.

"The quotas will be maintained. No changes are foreseen, " he said, adding Opec was "happy" with current prices.

OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, was producing at close to its maximum rate.

A year ago, the contrast between the Paris-based IEA and OPEC was far less marked.

Courtis said, the depreciation of the US dollars in 1979 led to the OPEC's threat of pricing in German mark .

He said economic growth in countries such as China and India is unlikely to help OPEC's efforts to stabilize or increase prices.

The group next meets on May 28 in Vienna and is widely expected to leave current supply curbs in place.

Indeed, the Islamic Republic, the second largest oil producer in OPEC, has come to be very concerned about petroleum.

These were the main reasons why the OPEC countries were able to observe a scramble among buyers to pay higher prices for oil in 1973 .

Opec's president yesterday warned oil prices could hit $200 a barrel and there would be little the cartel could do to help.

Libya is one of the world's largest oil exporters and a member of the Opec oil producers' cartel.

It was such sentiment that led to yesterday's decision to hold ministerial meetings to discuss Opec's response to the weak dollar.

Despite an early bearish response following OPEC's meeting, crude managed to turn higher helped by continued strength in the equity markets.

Yet while the Opec countries can complain about the weak dollar, trying to do something about it could easily backfire.

The IEA estimates that the output from mature fields outside OPEC would naturally drop by about 11% a year.

Oil production is rising slowly, OPEC continues to provide more supply, albeit at higher prices, and Russian output is at a recent peak.

This signifies a heavy burden of investment risk and a large uncertainty over future OPEC member countries' oil-related export revenues.

It said the move was needed to compensate for lower output from other countries in Opec.

"They had threatened Opec that they would act, so they perhaps felt they had to go ahead with it, " added Ms Bain.

Those cuts are likely to be kept in place at the group's final meeting of the year scheduled for Dec. 22 in Angola, OPEC officials say.

In a pinch, OPEC can start up some of its six million barrels a day of spare capacity if supplies run tight.

Prince Saud said: "Mere mention that Opec is studying the issue of the dollar is going to have an impact. "

More than half the oil America uses is imported , and eighty-five percent of that comes from OPEC countries .

It also underlines concerns about OPEC's willingness to help control prices, perhaps leaving the oil market more open to speculative attack.

"The declaration will be a statement on oil relations as seen by Opec, " said one cartel source, referring to a draft of the statement.

Ali Naimi, the veteran Saudi oil minister once described as Opec's de facto leader, denounced "one of the worst meetings we have ever had" .

Oil producing group OPEC meet in December to decide on a production policy in the light of current oil prices and economic recovery.

And if we remember Sheikh Yamani when he formed OPEC, they asked him, "When will we see the end of the age of oil? "

When OPEC last cut production, early in 2007, prices doubled in just over a year.

OPEC has had to accept what it was told from the start but chose not to believe: that non-OPEC co-operation would not be forthcoming.

Today, OPEC's profile is a little lour, after all the banks are the prime suspect for the latest recession.

For the first time, the agency estimated the costs to Opec oil-producing countries of a worldwide shift away from petrol and oil.

Abdalla El-Badri, the group's secretary-general, had previously described the idea of an IEA reserve release as a "weapon against OPEC" .

He also said OPEC was ready to meet additional demand for crude oil in the future.

But OPEC secretary general said Thursday, the cartel would not boost production, because "oil supplies are adequate" .

Brent crude oil, one of the main benchmarks, climbed by more than $3 a barrel from its price before the Opec decision to more than $119.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (the OPEC cartel), with its strong pricing power, still plays a role.

These increases, at least in the near term, reinforce OPEC trends and suggest that supply will continue to outpace demand in 2010.

We also believe that that non-OPEC production will struggle to grow going forward, primarily due to the decline rates of the mature fields.

CNN Anchor: But what do you think the impact on the market place would be for OPEC does nothing tomorrow?

Many traders had thought Opec would try to stop the price slide by cutting output when it met in Kuwait in early December.

Opec hopes that the supply cuts agreed last week will stabilise the oil market, but has already said more reductions could be considered.

The Saudis could simply pump out the extra oil unilaterally, but they will BE greatly constrained by their desire to preserve OPEC unity.

This week, as OPEC geared itself up for its birthday feast, Mr. Yamani surfaced as Banquo's ghost, complete with doom-laden predictions.

After China, the biggest holders of American debt securities are Japan, the United Kingdom, Caribbean banking centers, and OPEC nations.

The news that OPEC production quotas would not budge immediately sent oil prices upward.

Decisions about matching oil production to expected demand are taken at the Meeting of the OPEC Conference.

This largely explains OPEC's recent decision to put off further output cuts, even as crude prices continued sliding.

Oil is trading at about $70 a barrel, very close to where Saudi Arabia and the Opec oil cartel want it to be.

The attempt to increase oil production came as Opec yesterday faced strong political pressure from the US and other leading oil consumers.

He did not expect OPEC to change its supply targets, but said it should focus on stronger output discipline.

OPEC often doesn't live up to its promises to trim or add barrels.

Iran and Venezuela had pushed for Opec to move away from the dollar in the face of strong opposition from the summit's host, Saudi Arabia.

OPEC has lately decided to hold production at its current levels despite oil prices in excess of $100 a barrel.

The Saudis upped their output, which is now at a five-year high, after OPEC as a whole declined to raise quotas.

The OPEC members have tried to put a ~ on oil production.

There is at least a morsel of truth in Opec's accusation, though.

On the flip side, OPEC is likely to broadly maintain supply curbs over the coming months and this could provide some price support.

Meanwhile OPEC ministers have decided to stick with current production levels .

Strong Asian demand is likely to mean that OPEC's share of oil production rises again as it pumps extra output eastward.

OPEC's gathering in Quito two days ago was the seventh meeting with no change in output quotas.

Many other producers are already running at full capacity; OPEC has its hands on the only spare oil (see chart).

Refineries lack the excess capacity to absorb the kind of oil Opec produces.

The OPEC countries have decided to impose a surcharge on the oil price for the fourth quarter.

It was only shortly thereafter, with the advent of the OPEC oil embargo, that conservation became highlighted .

Saudi Arabia, leader of the Opec cartel, has increased its own production to offset diminished supply from Libya.

Opec yesterday again rejected calls to increase its supply, stating in its monthly report that the crude oil market was "healthy" .

As a result, the state-owned firms that run the oil industry in OPEC countries have had little reason to invest in new production capacity.

Then, the combination of an Opec oil embargo, inflation and recession caused corporate profits and stock markets to fall worldwide.

Saudi Arabia yesterday made clear Opec would not announce a production increase at this weekend's Riyadh summit.

When, by 2010, it cannot meet incremental demand, Opec will become less able to accommodate short-term fluctuations.

The price of crude oil has risen strongly for a second day after the exporters' group Opec didn't reach an agreement to increase production.

This country needs an emergency decree to go after all the oil and gas we have and let Venezuela, Opec and Mexico sell to others.

Indications that other OPEC members would join Saudi Arabia in increasing output has relieved some of the pressure.

"Opec countries are becoming more powerful, " says Mark Spellman, head of energy practice at Accenture, the consultancy.

Opec members could retaliate by selling some of their huge reserves of dollars - which would hit the dollar and US consumers very hard.

At the moment, OPEC is actually producing beyond its quota of 29 million barrels a day.

Details of such decisions are communicated in the form of OPEC Press Releases.

Saudi Arabia failed to convince all of OPEC's members on Wednesday to lift output to meet the expected demand rise in the rest of 2011.

OPEC nations have about two thirds of the world's proven conventional crude reserves, and one third of its production capacity.

OPEC sought to ease fears of a supply shock, promising to release reserves and increase production if need be.

Some analysts have questioned whether OPEC is capable of raising its output significantly.

On May 19, the IEA board publicly threatened to release strategic reserves if Opec failed to increase its own output.

"In the opinion of the experts there is no need for an emergency OPEC meet under stable oil market conditions, " Khatibi said.

Over the same period, the populations of OPEC countries started to mushroom, as both life expectancy and fertility rates rose.

Although a major oil exporter, the OPEC member has been slow to expand gas exports because of sanctions and has no LNG plants.

However, the supply side, Lishan Quan said Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production will have grown substantially.

Already, production by non-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is nearing its peak and subsequent decline.

At the height of the boom, with the price repeatedly setting records, production outside OPEC even fell.

Crude prices subsequently eased after key OPEC members suggested that production targets should be reviewed higher.

He insisted that oil prices are decided by the market and implied that OPEC could do nothing to solve the current problem.

If OPEC can't control the market any more, that means prices will have to swing much more.

Mr Shahristani this month said Opec would eventually have to discuss lowering other members' quotas to make room for Iraq.

Oil prices moved higher, on the back of a report that showed OPEC believe demand for petroleum will rise in 2012.

Dermot Gately, a professor of economics at New York University, has modelled OPEC countries' income at different levels of production.

Net expansion of non-OPEC supplies is likely to be negligible in the coming years.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have repeatedly said supplies are plentiful.

Most of the group's members have been producing more oil than prescribed under OPEC's production quota system.

And this is one of the most vivid statements: "Our neck is stretched over the fence and OPEC has a knife. "

OPEC President Chakib Khelil has predicted prices could hit $170 in the next few months, although they might fall later in the year.

Cnooc, and Beijing, also must weigh the benefits of 'securing' supply from a fissile country that also is subject to an OPEC quota.

Opec's output rise has so far failed to cool oil prices.

When asked about the president's call for increased OPEC production, Saudi Oil minister Ali Naimi was noncommittal .

In time OPEC came to be accused of holding oil importing countries to ransom by cutting production to push the price up.

OPEC's agreement to cut output has so far proved more durable than many predicted.

But might some OPEC members or other producing nations have gone further than this?

Or you can collude with your putative competitors : that's why cartels like OPEC exist .

Rising development costs and equipment bottlenecks are hampering oil production projects in non-OPEC nations like Mexico and Russia.

Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.

Mr. Sechin said Russia was working on a draft memorandum of understanding on deepened cooperation between Russia and OPEC.

Those countries try to regulate oil production via OPEC, but they often fail to stick to predetermined targets.

Shrinking global oil demand and the collapse in crude prices has hit members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hard.

Opec countries control an increasing share of global reserves and are not inclined to increase production just to give consumers a break.

Its influence may have reached a high point during the oil crisis connected to the nineteen seventy-three Arab-Israeli war.

While Mr Badri was not among the hawks at Opec's last meeting, he has surely heard the term "collateral damage" .

To make matters worse, civil strife, corruption and lack of investment are denting several OPEC countries' output.

Essentially, the Saudis and OPEC profess to believe that the markets are currently well-supplied.

OPEC meetings are always prominent makers in the calendar of events for the global economy.

The 18 per cent fall had much to do with Opec's willingness to keep the market well supplied, analysts said.

The move is only the third time in the history of the IEA, established in 1974 as a counterbalance to Opec after the Arab oil crisis.

Or will an enfeebled world economy continue to drag oil prices down even in the face of concerted OPEC action?

"The action served a market need by adding liquidity and bridging the gap to additional supplies from Opec countries, " read a statement.

Looking toward next week's Vienna gathering, some OPEC officials are expressing dismay at the continued surge in prices.

The decision was confirmed by OPEC President Wilson Pastor following a ministerial meeting Thursday afternoon.

OPEC has announced three separate rounds of production cuts since September in a bid to steady prices.

Alas, most of the world's remaining oil (and all of its cheap oil) is in the hands of OPEC or Russia.

Traders hope that Saudi Arabia will boost production stealthily or that OPEC will call a special meeting to raise quotas and calm markets.

Russian officials didn't specify whether they were seeking admission as a regular OPEC member.

Khelil told reporters after today's Cairo meeting that OPEC will "take any additional action" to "achieve market stability" at this time.

And yet what we proved then is the US has more market power than OPEC.

But foreign and Chinese industry sources doubt Beijing's dominant goal is to create an Opec-like price cartel.

"I hope we surprised you -- if not, we have to do something about it, " said OPEC President Chakib Khelil, host of the conference.

He encouraged UNCTAD to take part actively in this process and expand its relations with OPEC, WTO and regional organizations.

Many Opec producers have embarked on big spending programmes in recent years on the back of the higher oil price.

Creative thinking is required if China is not to become the Opec of rare earths.

The oil market was unnerved today by speculation OPEC was considering cutting its production to stem a recent decline in oil prices.

Much of Libya's oil production has been lost for the past two months but other members of the Opec producers' cartel have boosted supplies.

The biggest OPEC producers already prohibit foreign operators from accessing their oil reserves.

Opec is also less fearsome as developed countries generate twice as much output from each barrel of crude as in the 1970s.

Abdalla El-Badri, Opec's secretary general, said prices could rise to $70-$75 a barrel by the end of the year.

In addition to the OPEC supply cuts, international oil companies have delayed some of their most expensive projects.

After adjusting for inflation, the real prices of petroleum products were close to per-OPEC levels.

Following the meeting OPEC oil ministers said they will stick to present output levels set in December.

For the most part, industrialized economies relied on crude oil, and OPEC was their predominant supplier.

OPEC claims that the world is amply supplied with oil and seems content with a price around $100 a barrel.

These twin factors have given OPEC members, anxious to shore up their economies, substantially more revenue.

But with oil prices now flirting with $100 a barrel, OPEC officials have been aggressive in batting aside talk that they are to blame.

Most of that downward revision affects the near term: OPEC's 2013 demand forecast dropped by 5. 7 million barrels a day.

In the short-run, market participants will focus on both Opec and perhaps even non-Opec producer responses to balance the market.

OPEC ministers want to counter a seasonal downturn in consumption at the end of the northern hemisphere winter in the second quarter.

Members of OPEC, the organization of petroleum exporting countries are all middle eastern nations.

Recent comments by the likes of Kuwait's oil minister suggesting OPEC wants $100 oil are dangerous for the cartel.

Abdalla El-Badri, the Opec secretary general, denied that failure to reach a consensus would risk crisis on the oil market.

Even so, investors are clearly expecting OPEC to step into the breach soon before oil prices rise further.

It follows calls by several Opec members for the cartel to comply with existing quotas by trimming output.

Saudi Arabia will be looking most intently for signs that other OPEC members are complying with earlier agreements to trim supply.

The OPEC increase in the price of oil launched the transition to alternative energy sources.

Opec's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, does want an increase, but others, notably Iran and Venezuela, are opposed.

Iran is the second biggest crude oil producer in the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries but it lacks refinery capacity.

Calling Opec's bluff once in 38 years, and doing so in the interest of consumers, does not a manipulator make.

But for many Opec members, particularly Saudi Arabia, a move away from the dollar could hurt their economies.

It has historically taken OPEC many attempts to stem price declines.

The Mexican windfall will be scrutinised by other producers suffering a drop in oil revenues, and particularly by Opec's members.

OPEC hopes that by cutting output it can put a break on diving oil prices that have been dramatic in recent weeks.

Note: Random events present downside risk to the non-OPEC production forecast contained in this Report.

Meanwhile, more hawkish members of OPEC, such as Venezuela, are calling for a cut in output to stop oil prices falling further.

Another reason why Opec has lost clout are technological developments that price shocks have helped spur.

"He emphasized again that the oil market is saturated, " the website reported, citing Iran's OPEC governor, Mohammad Ali Khatibi.

Non-OPEC producers are scaling back investment, which should tighten supply eventually.

OPEC, meanwhile, amassed enormous wealth from oil exports and the growth of OECD nations was slowed with the oil shock.

Indonesia is Southeast Asia's only OPEC member. It joined in 1962, just two years after the group was formed.

What happens if members of Opec, the oil cartel, refuse to sell oil to allies of Israel or if extreme weather conditions hit Europe?

Although oil prices dropped on Tuesday, the warning from the IEA will put pressure on Opec to increase its production.

In fact, Abdullah al-Badri, OPEC's secretary-general, said that the recent spike has "largely been driven by market speculators. "

The OPEC chief said more oil would not solve the high prices.

I underestimated the strength of the recovery in Chinese demand and Opec's discipline.

What oil price will the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decide on at its next meeting?

Despite an OPEC pledge to comply with past cuts and targets, a slow leak of increased production seems set to continue.

The House of Representatives Tuesday passed a bill authorizing the federal government to sue OPEC in US courts over alleged price fixing.

But it warned that the Opec oil cartel could cap the rally by increasing production.

But some Opec members appear to have disputed this forecast.

Other OPEC members won't take this lying down. Many will likely prefer to bust quotas, pressuring prices further.

She held a fundraising event in New York City Saturday, and blamed the OPEC cartel for rising fuel prices.

The size of the Opec cushion has been an important driver of international crude prices.

It said most signs pointed toward gradual growth in fuel consumption, but there were risks to the downside.

They also welcomed their thirteenth member, Ecuador, which rejoined OPEC in November.

Meanwhile, OPEC has in excess of 6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, the organization's secretary general said last month.

We will have to endure a new and mighty role for Opec and the sprouting up everywhere of new nuclear power stations.

Meeting in Manchester yesterday, Europe's finance ministers called on Opec to increase output.

But signs are emerging in other OPEC countries that energy projects could get caught in the financial fallout.

Non-OPEC output growth for 2004 has been revised down despite gains in Russia, due notably to a lower forecast for OECD supply.

In those days, China was self-sufficient and felt the effect of Opec's actions far less than drivers in the US.

At current levels a number of Opec producers cannot cover their national budgets.

For years, key OPEC states looked to U. S. oil consumption as justification for adding new pumping capacity.

But even national oil companies within Opec are not investing as much as international oil companies.

OPEC officials declined to comment on what might become of the Russian outreach.

OPEC ministers in heatedtalks Thursday sought ways to end violations of agreed price and production levels in competition to sell their oil.

Mr. Khatibi said energy insecurity-including the impact of the mulled European embargo-may be debated when OPEC next meets on Dec 14.

Combined, these factors have led to stagnating oil production growth outside the Opec cartel.

Saudi Arabia has shouldered the bulk of the output cuts announced by Opec, the oil cartel.

Adding support to this theory are mumblings from OPEC delegates in support of the mechanism.

The move follows Opec's failure earlier this month to agree an increase in production quotas.

Individual Opec members, notably Saudi Arabia, responded to Libya's shutdown by raising their own output.

But OPEC is split into two camps, those with spare capacity (of which Saudi Arabia controls 70%) and those that cannot pump any more oil.

Afterwards, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia said OPEC has always acted moderately and wisely.

If the OPEC price goes above that, the tax goes away. What does that do for entrepreneurs?

His resignation hasn't been made official yet, according to two industry and OPEC officials, but had been rumored in past days.

This paper firstly analyzed the transmission problems from OPEC output uncertainty to oil prices'volatilities.

Its members produce about 40% of the world's oil. But two of the world's top three oil exporters, Russia and Norway, are not OPEC members.

However, crude oil prices rose after Opec's announcement on strong speculative buying.

An OPEC-style cartel for gas would kill the very market it would aim to control.

But there is still heated debate within OPEC over how severely to slash output now.

In meeting this demand, the resource base is clearly sufficient, and both OPEC crude and other sources of oil supply will increase.

The Paris- based agency also warned it might cut its forecasts for non-Opec supply growth even further.

Commander in Chief will give players information from 50 international organizations including the UN, NATO and OPEC.

Before the US subprime lending crisis, oil-consuming countries had hoped Opec would raise production next month.

Any such move would add to the cumulative cuts of 4. 2m barrels per day that Opec has instituted in two rounds since September.

By raising oil prices, and the geopolitical temperature, OPEC encouraged new supply.

A slip in the oil price to the $60-per-barrel range would likely trigger renewed output cuts from both OPEC and non-OPEC members.

One of the problems for Opec is that nobody seems sure why oil prices have fallen so dramatically.