Lukashenka

But as Oleg Manaev, an independent sociologist, says, "Lukashenka's fate is no longer in his own hands" .

His true score of 93%, Mr Lukashenka explained, would not have been acceptable to the European Union, so a few points were lopped off.

Relations between Moscow and Minsk have been increasingly rocky since the Kremlin hailed Mr Lukashenka's rigged re-election four years ago.

Calling Mr Lukashenka a paranoid dictator makes dealing with him difficult, but not impossible.

One of Mr Lukashenka's first post-election decisions was to pass an energy-saving decree.

Violence erupted in Minsk after Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the president of Belarus, was declared to have won re-election with 80% of the vote.

Given his own dictatorial tendencies, the Belarusian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, may require similar favours in years to come.

Mr Lukashenka, who faces a presidential election in a few months, retaliated.

It also coincided, perhaps fortuitously for Mr Lukashenka, with an uncomfortable few weeks for Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Mr Lukashenka has become an obstacle, despite the fact that Russia and Belarus are supposedly forming a union between their states.

Russia's war with Georgia in August has made Mr Lukashenka, for all his flaws, a man worth courting.

In future Mr Lukashenka's quarrels with Russia should not make him any more acceptable to the West.

After violently suppressing protests and taking many political prisoners, Mr Lukashenka cut Belarus off from Western support.

Mr Lukashenka seems in a mood to bargain, an offer the opposition think should be ignored.

European leaders, who had promised Mr Lukashenka cash as a reward for decent elections, seemed caught by surprise.

Russia's offensive could be aimed at threatening Mr Lukashenka rather than deposing him.

Calling a kettle black 2and supporting a democratic uprising against Mr Lukashenka have obvious risks for the Kremlin.

Both sides saw clear benefit in making up this time, but it is well known that Mr Putin dislikes Mr Lukashenka.

These days Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the demagogic and authoritarian president of Belarus, cannot stand it.

In the summer of 2010 Russia unleashed a television attack on Mr Lukashenka, accusing him of usurping power and repressing the media.

If Mr Lukashenka's entourage feel that Moscow has ditched their boss, they may abandon ship.

He is a dealer who likes to trade hostages for money. Paying a ransom would only encourage more hostage-taking.

Mr Lukashenka has often outmanoeuvred his Russian sponsors, who are wary of losing Belarus to the West.

To bribe voters, Mr Lukashenka raised salaries and social spending.

So nobody applauded Mr Lukashenka's combative speech.

In Belarus's vote on September 28th, candidates loyal to the president, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, took all 110 seats.

One is that, with the Russians in this mood, Mr Lukashenka's grip on Belarus may be in jeopardy.

Mr Lukashenka's main challenger was badly beaten by riot police.

The Kremlin may not want to topple Mr Lukashenka yet because it fears that, without him, Belarus could rush towards the West.

This is because the elections last year which prolonged President Lukashenka's rule were declared to be rigged.