A small shift in the predicted probabilityof an extreme tail event can wreak havoc.
对一个极端的末尾事件的概率预测上的较小改变，能够导致一场大破坏。
2
Markets might be undermined by what Nassim Taleb, an author, has described as a “black swan”—an event with a smallprobabilityof happening, but a big impact if it does.
市场有可能被作家塔雷伯所描述的“黑天鹅”（发生几率很小，但可造成重大影响的事件）所击垮。
3
The tail of random variable's distribution is the focus of the risk analysis because the event with smallprobability often occurs in this area.