The obvious question iswhether all this is merely a cyclical upswing or whether Germany hasundergone some deeper, structural change.

This is giving the US consumer a false sense of wealth and wellbeing, he believes, arguing that US data merely reflect a temporary upswing in a large cyclical downturn.

Meanwhile, though the aerospace market is famously cyclical, the downward pressure on profits won't necessarily be relieved during the next market upswing.