The value of such forecasts is not to be judged by their average record over several years, but by whether they signal problems and opportunities in advance of turning points.
这种预测的价值，并非体现在多年的平均记录，而是体现在能否在转折点之前显示出问题与机会的迹象。
2
Consumers are certainly spending less, but they are not giving up travel, nor are they turning away from the Web sites that offer them the selection and convenience they value.