If you look at a chart of the market averages from this date you will see that this marked a significant top where the majority of the stock averages dropped 20% or more.

Since few mutual funds can regularly beat the market averages, you have a pretty good chance of keeping up with the 26.5% average annual rise in stock prices we've enjoyed since January 2009.

During periods of stock-market weakness, price-to-earnings ratios eventually fall below their averages, sometimes into the high single digits, as they did during the last long-running bear market.