That at any rate is the market view, according to the price of a credit-default swap which pays out if the borrower defaults (see chart).
至少，这是市场的看法，这是根据如果借款人违约而需要支付的信用违约掉期的价格而得出的结论（见图表）。
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So if there is a default, the issuer of the credit default swap pays you, and so you gain just as the short seller gains when the price of the stock or bond that he's shorted falls.
An ETF tracking the price of oil, for instance, might not buy oil itself, but may make a "swap" deal with another financial firm guaranteeing a payout if the price of oil goes up.