The fifth part is focusing on a few key stages in the model: career preparation stage, career shaped stage, career stabilization stage and career recession stage;

One thing is for sure: a return to euro-zone recession would set the stage for a prolonged crisis environment, through which the survival of the currency area will constantly be in question.

The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk.