Shocks are still likely: for instance, the size of the bubble and scale of the bust may overturn historic relationships such as that between unemployment rates and credit-card losses.

This baby bust was a demographic echo of the rural famines that haunted China from 1958 to 1961, reducing the size of the cohort that would have been their parents (see right-hand chart).

With the real estate bust, analysts say some small and medium-size Banks with greater exposure to the sector could face difficulties.