Mr Rauh calculates that seven states will have exhausted their pension assets by 2020—even if they make a return of 8%, a common assumption that looks wildly optimistic.
Mr Rauh and Mr Novy-Marx estimate that raising the retirement age by a year would trim the cost by 2-4%; a cut of a percentage point in inflation-linking would slash it by 9-11%.
Mr Rauh and Mr Novy-Marx估计，提高一年退休年龄将是开销减少2%-4%，通货膨胀率下降一个百分点将使债务减少9%-11%。