If people spend roughly the same share of their rebate as they did in 2001, Morgan Stanley reckons output could grow at an annual rate of more than 4% in the third quarter of 2008.

In the case of a 1% rebate, the high-roller's expected loss rate then falls to 1.85%, which doesn't compare too unfavorably with current mainland bank deposit rates.

The main problem on the export rebate system of our current agricultural products is a severe tax drain of agricultural products; a low export rebate rate for agricultural products.