There was good reason to think that the economy might have grown at 4% this year, but actual performance is largely governed by two big factors: what shocks occur and how policymakers respond to them.

'for years, our financial sector was governed by antiquated and poorly enforced rules that allowed some to game the system and take risks that endangered the entire economy,' Mr. Obama said.

Thee unexpectedly sunny last few months of 2011 may provide Americans with a glimpse of what its economy could be, in a stabler, better governed world.