To assess the absolute risk of a crisis you need to estimate external-financing needs (defined as the sum of the current-account balance and the stock of short-term debt) over the next 12 months.
Most of the increased funding since 2002 has come from domestic funding in Brazil, China and the Russian Federation, and externalfinancing from the Global fund.
2002年以来多数新增资金来自巴西、中国和俄罗斯联邦的国内资金以及由全球基金提供的外部资金。
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A credit squeeze will hit those still depending on externalfinancing.